USDA ERS - Charts of Note (2024)

Table of Contents
Farm prices received for pumpkins vary widely by State Thursday, October 24, 2024 Russets dominate potato acreage in most top-producing States Thursday, August 15, 2024 2022 Census of Agriculture: Vegetable acreage destined for processing varies by crop Wednesday, July 10, 2024 Growth in greenhouses: Controlled environment agriculture production, operations on the rise Tuesday, July 2, 2024 Greenhouse tomatoes fuel U.S. import growth in fresh tomatoes Thursday, June 20, 2024 The top 6 pumpkin-producing States grew 1.2 billion pounds of pumpkins in 2022 Thursday, October 26, 2023 With domestic chili pepper production cooling off, imports have heated up Thursday, September 14, 2023 Fries on the rise: Nearly half of potatoes now go into frozen products Tuesday, August 29, 2023 Imports make up growing share of U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable supply Monday, July 31, 2023 U.S. lettuce production shifts regionally by season Thursday, May 18, 2023 Pi Day: U.S. production values of seven popular pie ingredients approach $7 billion Tuesday, March 14, 2023 Share of insured acreage varies widely across vegetable and pulse crops Monday, March 6, 2023 U.S. sweet potatoes are enjoyed around the world, export data show Tuesday, November 8, 2022 California leads States in the purchase of Federal Crop Insurance Program policies for specialty crops Monday, November 7, 2022 North Carolina and New York lead U.S. in specialty crop applications to Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP) Tuesday, November 1, 2022 Pumpkin production in Illinois squashed combined output of five other leading States Wednesday, October 26, 2022 Farmers receive about 15 to 18 percent of retail price for fresh potatoes Wednesday, August 17, 2022 Farmers received smaller share of the price consumers paid for fresh tomatoes in 2021 than in 2020 Wednesday, July 6, 2022 Rising consumption of carrots over the past century influenced by fresh-cut technology Friday, April 1, 2022 Retail prices for collard greens fall during holiday seasons even as demand rises Thursday, January 13, 2022
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USDA ERS - Charts of Note (1)

Subscribe to our Charts of Note series, which highlights economic research and analysis on agriculture, food, the environment, and rural America. Each week, this series highlights charts of interest from current and past ERS research.

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Farm prices received for pumpkins vary widely by State

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Pumpkins are native to the Americas, and their cultivation has been dated back to 7,000 BCE in what is now Mexico. Today, pumpkins are grown commercially in every U.S. State, with uses ranging from cooking and baking to decorating and carving jack-o’-lanterns. Farm prices received can vary widely by State because of the type of pumpkins being grown and their intended use. About 85 percent of U.S. pumpkin acres harvested go to the fresh market, mostly for decorative purposes. The remaining 15 percent go to the processing market, which are used in food products, such as pumpkin puree, and are priced lower than decorative pumpkins. In Illinois, about 70 percent of pumpkin acres are harvested for processing. This means that Illinois growers consistently received the lowest prices, averaging $40 per 1,000 pounds of pumpkins during 2021 to 2023. In contrast, Washington growers consistently received the highest prices for their predominantly decorative pumpkins, averaging $355 per 1,000 pounds during 2021 to 2023. In 2023, prices in other top pumpkin-producing States averaged between $177 and $203 per 1,000 pounds of pumpkins, most of which were used for decorative purposes. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Trending Topics page, .

Russets dominate potato acreage in most top-producing States

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Potatoes are grown throughout the United States, but the proportion of distinct potato varieties varies in the top 13 potato-producing States. The versatile Russet potato—used for baking, mashing, and frying—is the most popular variety and accounts for about 70 percent of planted acres each year. Russets make up a majority share of potato acreage in northern growing States, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine, where the variety is well-suited for the cooler climate. White potatoes—grown for use in fresh and chip processing markets—typically account for one-fifth of area planted to potatoes and are second in popularity. In Michigan, white potatoes consistently account for a higher percentage of planted acreage because of demand from chip-producing plants in the State. Red, blue, and yellow varieties account for the smallest share of acreage planted to potatoes and are primarily grown for the fresh market. Differences in the proportion of potato varieties can be attributed to many factors, including consumer demand, crop rotation limitations, seed availability, and industry demand for specific varieties of processing potatoes. In 2024, the United States is forecast to plant 941,000 acres of potatoes, which would be a 2-percent decrease from 2023. This chart is based on the USDA, Economic Research Service Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, released in July 2024.

2022 Census of Agriculture: Vegetable acreage destined for processing varies by crop

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

In the United States, the share of harvested acres dedicated to vegetables intended for sale in the processing market varies widely by crop. Some vegetables lend themselves readily to processing, such as tomatoes for sauces and canning. Others are largely destined for the fresh market and have only a small percentage processed, such as broccoli. Using data from the 2022 Census of Agriculture, the share of harvested acres for processing is estimated to range from around 90 percent for green peas and horseradish to less than 5 percent for cauliflower and broccoli. More than half of harvested acres for potatoes (56 percent) and sweet corn (55 percent)—the top two vegetables by acres harvested—was devoted to processing production. Processing accounted for 39 percent of total melon, vegetable, potato, and sweet potato harvested area in 2022 (excluding mushrooms and pulse crops), down from 44 percent at the 2012 census. The greatest total number of harvested acres devoted to processing was for potatoes (600,169 acres), followed by sweet corn (258,781 acres) and tomatoes (248,318 acres). The number of acres of vegetables, potatoes, and melons harvested by U.S. growers has decreased since the 2007 census. With fresh-market acreage relatively flat, the declines have been concentrated in processing acreage. This chart is based on the USDA, Economic Research Service Vegetables and Pulses Outlook Report released April 2024.

Growth in greenhouses: Controlled environment agriculture production, operations on the rise

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

From 2009 to 2019, controlled environment agriculture (CEA), also referred to as “protected agriculture” or “protected culture,” saw significant growth in both the number of operations and production of fresh produce in the United States. CEA systems grant producers control of factors such as temperature, wind, lighting, and/or precipitation. These systems help to increase production while limiting factors that could inhibit growth, such as adverse weather conditions and common pests. In the United States, CEA operations—which include greenhouses, vertical agriculture, hydroponics, aquaponics, and other controlled production methods—increased by more than 100 percent from 1,476 operations in 2009 to 2,994 in 2019. Production volumes increased by 56 percent during the same time to 7.86 million hundredweight. Approximately 60 to 70 percent of the crops grown in CEA systems in 2009 and 2019 were tomatoes, lettuce, and cucumbers, with hydroponic systems being the most common method of cultivation. Updated data from the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Census of Horticultural Specialties are expected in December 2024. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report Trends, Insights, and Future Prospects for Production in Controlled Environment Agriculture and Agrivoltaics Systems, January 2024.

Greenhouse tomatoes fuel U.S. import growth in fresh tomatoes

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Since 2000, U.S. fresh tomato import volumes have grown by 176 percent. Over the last two decades, nearly all import growth has stemmed from tomatoes that were grown in greenhouses. In the early 2000s, greenhouse fresh tomatoes represented about 14 percent of fresh tomato import volume and 23 percent of value. By the early 2020s, greenhouse tomatoes represented 60 percent of total fresh tomato import volume and 59 percent of value. The increase was driven primarily by expansion of year-round greenhouse tomato production in Mexico, the foremost supplier of tomatoes to the United States. While greenhouse tomato production in the United States has also expanded during this time, imports accounted for an estimated 88 percent of the domestic greenhouse tomato supply in 2023. The share of greenhouse-grown tomato imports varies by tomato variety. In 2023, almost 80 percent of all cherry and grape tomato imports were greenhouse-grown, compared with one-third of total Roma tomato imports. This chart is based on the USDA, Economic Research Service Vegetable and Pulses Outlook: April 2024.

The top 6 pumpkin-producing States grew 1.2 billion pounds of pumpkins in 2022

Thursday, October 26, 2023

Pumpkins were one of the earliest cultivated crops in the Americas and have become one of the most distinctive symbols of fall. With a variety of uses, from pies and spiced coffee drinks to festive jack-o’-lanterns, pumpkins are grown commercially in every U.S. State. Production has trended up over the past two decades. In the early 2000s, about 4 pounds of the gourd were available per person, increasing to about 6 pounds per person in the 2020s. In the top 6 pumpkin-growing States, farms produced about 1.2 billion pounds in 2022. Illinois alone harvested 630 million pounds. The next 5 largest pumpkin-producing States by weight were Indiana with 160 million pounds, California with 120 million pounds, Michigan and Pennsylvania with 90 million pounds each, and Virginia with 50 million pounds. Most pumpkins are grown for decorative purposes, with a smaller amount processed into puree to be used in food products such as pies, muffins, or breads. However, in Illinois—the largest producer by both acres and weight—about 80 percent of the State’s harvested pumpkin acres are used for processing. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Trending Topics page.

With domestic chili pepper production cooling off, imports have heated up

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Although domestic chili pepper production has been falling for more than a decade, the rate of reduction has accelerated in recent years. In 2014, U.S. producers in Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas grew more than 480 million pounds of chili peppers. By 2022, production had dropped to about 175 million pounds. Generally, this 60-percent decrease can be attributed to reduced acreage and yields. To offset decreasing domestic production and to meet rising demand, many U.S. companies and consumers have purchased imported peppers, most of which are grown in Mexico. In 2014, about 2 out of every 10 chili peppers consumed domestically were produced domestically. By 2022, this share had fallen to less than 1 out of every 10. From 2014 to 2022, the number of peppers exported remained steady, ranging from 66 million pounds to 106 million. However, the share of U.S. peppers exported more than tripled, increasing from 14 percent in 2014 to 46 percent in 2022. Although 8 percent more chili peppers were available in 2022 than in 2014, fewer were grown by U.S. producers. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Vegetables and Pulses Yearbook.

Fries on the rise: Nearly half of potatoes now go into frozen products

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

The majority of potatoes in the United States are now sold in processed forms such as frozen, chipped, dehydrated, or canned. With the introduction of french fries as a key side dish in quick-service restaurants, the share of potatoes that go into frozen products has risen in each decade since 1979. As a result, almost half of all potatoes going into food in the United States are now used to create frozen products—most of which are french fries. Meanwhile, the share of potatoes used as fresh table potatoes has declined decade by decade. Even the favorable trend in french fries has seen some bumps along the way. After peaking in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the long-run upward trend in frozen potato availability slowed as many consumers embraced low-carb diets or sought alternative food choices and cuisines. However, by the mid-2010s, frozen potato availability once again turned upward, with per capita availability during the pandemic-influenced 2019–21 period up 8 percent from a decade earlier (2009–11). According to industry data and USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) research in the early 2000s, about 90 percent of frozen french fries move through various food service venues. Quick-service restaurants alone account for about two-thirds of french fry usage. This chart is drawn from the ERS data product Vegetables and Pulses Yearbook Tables.

Imports make up growing share of U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable supply

Monday, July 31, 2023

Imports play a vital and increasingly important role in ensuring that fresh fruit and vegetables are available year-round in the United States. Since the 2008 completion of the transition to tariff- and quota-free trade among Mexico, Canada, and the United States under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable imports have increased with few interruptions. Between 2007 and 2021, the percent of U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable availability supplied by imports grew from 50 to 60 percent for fresh fruit and from 20 to 38 percent for fresh vegetables (excluding potatoes, sweet potatoes, and mushrooms). The import share increased by more than 20 percentage points during this period for 10 crops: asparagus, avocados, bell peppers, blueberries, broccoli, cauliflower, cucumbers, raspberries, snap beans, and tomatoes. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), implemented on July 1, 2020, continues NAFTA’s market access provisions for fruit and vegetables. In 2022, Mexico and Canada supplied 51 percent and 2 percent, respectively, of U.S. fresh fruit imports, and 69 percent and 20 percent, respectively, of U.S. fresh vegetable imports in terms of value. This chart is drawn using data from the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) data products Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook Data and Vegetables and Pulses Yearbook Data. Also refer to the ERS report, Changes in U.S. Agricultural Imports from Latin America and the Caribbean, published in July 2023, and ERS’s Amber Waves feature, U.S. Fresh Vegetable Imports From Mexico and Canada Continue To Surge, published in November 2021.

U.S. lettuce production shifts regionally by season

Thursday, May 18, 2023

Lettuce—the main ingredient in many salads and a popular sandwich topper—is the most widely consumed leafy green in the United States. In 2022, lettuce accounted for nearly one-fifth of the $21.8 billion that U.S. growers received in cash receipts from sales of vegetables and melons. Romaine lettuce sales totaled $1.54 billion, iceberg lettuce sales were $1.33 billion, and leaf lettuce sales trailed at $1.25 billion. An estimated 85 percent of the lettuce available for consumption in the United States was produced domestically in 2022. While production of lettuce occurs year-round, areas of production shift with the growing seasons. From mid-November through early April, most lettuce sold in the United States is sourced from the irrigated desert valleys of Southern California’s Imperial County and the Yuma area of Arizona. Shipments of lettuce from Florida help fill in regional market gaps during winter and spring months. From late April through mid-November, production shifts to Central California. From spring through fall, local production in most other States serves farmers markets, regional/local retail and restaurant demand, and community-supported agriculture. This chart is drawn from an article titled, “Lettuce Trends: Conventional, Organic Growth, and Production,” from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, April 2023.

Pi Day: U.S. production values of seven popular pie ingredients approach $7 billion

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

March 14 is known to many as Pi Day. The date resembles the mathematical constant π, roughly equal to 3.14, and for that reason, many celebrate the day by enjoying their favorite type of pie. In 2021, the United States grew $6.9 billion worth of seven popular fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts often used as the main ingredient in pie making. The value of production of these seven commodities in 2021, as measured by U.S. cash receipts, was the highest for apples, which are produced abundantly in the United States both in terms of volume and production value. The U.S. apple crop exceeded $3.03 billion in 2021, whereas production of blueberries reached $1.1 billion. Cash receipts for other fruit pie ingredients, cherries and peaches, were valued at $950 million and $624 million, respectively. Pecans, a tree nut, were valued at $551 million in terms of U.S. cash receipts. The pear crop of 2021 was valued at $373 million, while production of pumpkins, the fall icon and mainstay of the holiday table, was valued at $231 million. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Fruit and Tree Nuts and Vegetables and Pulses Yearbook Tables.

Share of insured acreage varies widely across vegetable and pulse crops

Monday, March 6, 2023

Insurance coverage of vegetable and pulse production varies widely by crop among the two Federal options for protection against losses from natural disasters. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers examined USDA, Risk Management Agency (RMA) data on the acres covered under the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) and the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP) to understand how vegetable and pulse producers have used Federal risk management options. For instance, RMA and Census of Agriculture data from 2017 shows that dry peas, dry beans, and tomatoes heavily used FCIP. Around 20 percent of cucumber and cabbage acreage was also covered by FCIP. When USDA does not offer FCIP policies in a county because of insufficient data to create an actuarially sound policy, farmers can still protect a crop through NAP. NAP provides protection against yield losses, though not revenue losses and covers a large portion of the acreage for some crops, such as sweet potatoes, pumpkins, and peppers but is used less frequently by lettuce growers. Cucumber and cabbage crops accounted for 11 percent and 16 percent of total acreage covered under NAP. Because there are no FCIP policies available for watermelon, lettuce, and squash crops, producers of those crops either enrolled in NAP or did not insure their crop. Slightly less than half of watermelon and squash acres were covered under NAP. Farmers who did not protect with either FCIP or NAP likely employ other management practices, such as crop rotations, irrigation, or growing in a protective structure, to maintain production and revenue. This chart appears in the Economic Research Service bulletin Specialty Crop Participation in Federal Risk Management Programs, published in September 2022.

U.S. sweet potatoes are enjoyed around the world, export data show

Tuesday, November 8, 2022

The United States is not the only country enjoying U.S. sweet potatoes. According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the United States was the top global exporter, by volume, of sweet potatoes in 2020. U.S. sweet potato exports on a fresh-weight basis increased 1,157 percent from 2001 to 2021, and the annual value of exports grew from $14 million to $187 million in the same period. Promotion of the tuber’s health benefits and food companies’ expanding sweet-potato offerings, such as sweet potato chips and fries, have helped fuel the expansion. Exports to the United Kingdom and European Union experienced strong year-over-year growth from the mid-2000s until 2018. Rising global competition and the damage caused by Hurricane Florence to the 2019 crop in North Carolina—the State leading U.S. production—cooled the export market. From 2018 to 2021, exports declined to the United Kingdom by 28 percent and to the European Union by 12 percent. Meanwhile, exports have continued to increase to Canada, among other destinations. The United States ranks seventh globally in sweet potato production, according to FAO. Over the past 20 years, top-producing U.S. States more than doubled sweet potato production to meet growing international and domestic demand. This trend has plateaued since U.S. sweet potato production reached a record high in 2017. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Vegetables and Pulses Outlook: April 2022.

California leads States in the purchase of Federal Crop Insurance Program policies for specialty crops

Monday, November 7, 2022

The USDA offers various risk management products to specialty crop farmers through the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP). FCIP policies can mitigate risks by providing payments if insured crops experience losses caused by naturally occurring events (such as weather-related conditions) and market conditions. Specialty crops are a commodity group which includes fresh or dried fruits; tree nuts; vegetables; pulse crops such as dry beans, peas, and lentils; and horticulture nursery crops. California led the country in FCIP policies for specialty crops in 2020 (19,433), followed by Florida (5,060), Washington (4,233), North Dakota (3,860), and Minnesota (2,526). These States also produce the most fruits and vegetables (California, Florida, and Washington) and specialty field crops (North Dakota and Minnesota). California’s policies reflect the variety of specialty crops produced in the State, including almonds, grapes, oranges, walnuts, and raisins. Most North Dakota policies cover field crops—dry beans and dry peas. In 2020, specialty crops accounted for 25 percent of the value of U.S. crop production. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service bulletin Specialty Crop Participation in Federal Risk Management Programs, published in September 2022.

North Carolina and New York lead U.S. in specialty crop applications to Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP)

Tuesday, November 1, 2022

USDA operates various Federal crop insurance and disaster aid programs to help producers mitigate the risks of agricultural production such as weather, price, or pests. But when sufficient data is not available to create an actuarially sound insurance product (one in which premiums paid should approximately equal indemnity payments), then producers can apply to the USDA, Farm Service Agency’s Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP). NAP covered about 115 million total acres in 2017. Specialty crops, which include fruits and vegetables, tree nuts, dried fruits, and horticulture nursery crops, are often grown in areas where there are suitable soil and weather conditions. In 2020, North Carolina and New York had the highest number of specialty crop NAP applications. Each State had more than 5,000 applications. Across the U.S., NAP applications were made for 147 different specialty crops in 2020. This chart appears in the Economic Research Service report Specialty Crop Participation in Federal Risk Management Programs, published in September 2022.

Pumpkin production in Illinois squashed combined output of five other leading States

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Pumpkins are on full display across the United States as part of many fall traditions, such as picking pumpkins at local farms, carving jack-o’-lanterns for Halloween, or baking pumpkin desserts for Thanksgiving. The production of pumpkins, from classic orange Howdens to new varieties like Cinderella, is widely dispersed throughout the United States, with all States producing some pumpkins. However, about 40 percent of pumpkin acres are harvested in only six States. By acreage and weight, Illinois is consistently the Nation’s largest pumpkin producer. In 2021, Illinois produced 652 million pounds, more than a quarter of total U.S. pumpkin production and more than the next five States combined. Unlike all other States, most of Illinois’ pumpkins are used for pie filling and processed for other food uses. Pumpkins from the other States are primarily intended for decorative, or carving, use. In 2021, Indiana produced 181 million pounds of pumpkins, California grew 157 million pounds, Texas grew 108 million pounds, Michigan grew 89 million pounds, and Virginia grew 82 million pounds. Retail prices for pumpkins typically fluctuate week to week leading up to Halloween. In the third week of October 2022, the average retail price for jack-o’-lantern style pumpkins was $5.07 per pumpkin, up 2 percent compared to the same week in 2021. This chart is drawn from Economic Research Service’s Trending Topics page, .

Farmers receive about 15 to 18 percent of retail price for fresh potatoes

Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Food processors, manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers transform raw agricultural commodities into convenient food products for U.S. consumers. Value added to commodities through these companies’ marketing services and money paid to farmers for their commodities account for a substantial portion of retail food prices. The farm share of the retail price of fresh potatoes—the ratio of what farmers receive to what consumers pay per pound in grocery stores—has fluctuated between 15 percent and 18 percent in recent years. The national monthly average price of fresh potatoes was $0.78 per pound at grocery stores in 2021, and the monthly average price received by farmers was $0.12 per pound. As part of the farm share calculation, the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) assumes that farmers supply a little more than 1.04 pounds of fresh potatoes for each pound sold at retail to account for the roughly 4 percent of fresh potatoes that is lost through spoilage or damage. Therefore, at an average farm price of $0.12 per pound, the farm receipt was 12.5 cents for each pound of potatoes sold in 2021, about 16 percent of the retail price. ERS researchers recently hosted a data training webinar on farm-to-retail price spreads and farm share statistics. More information on ERS’s farm share data can be found in the Price Spreads from Farm to Consumer data product, updated June 28, 2022.

Farmers received smaller share of the price consumers paid for fresh tomatoes in 2021 than in 2020

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

The farm share of the retail price of fresh, field-grown tomatoes—the ratio of what farmers received to what consumers paid per pound in grocery stores—fell from 43 percent in 2020 to 36 percent in 2021. While the national, monthly average price of such tomatoes at grocery stores fell 11 cents to $1.85 per pound in 2021, the monthly average price received by farmers simultaneously fell 16 cents to $0.56 per pound. As part of calculating the farm share, the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) assumes that farmers supply a little less than 1.2 pounds of fresh tomatoes for each pound sold at retail, as 15 percent of the fresh tomatoes shipped to grocery stores is lost through spoilage or is otherwise damaged. Farm prices for tomatoes were lower in 2021 as U.S. domestic production of all types of fresh-market tomatoes rose 1.3 percent. This came despite a 4-percent decline in overall fresh vegetable production caused partly by extreme heat in growing regions. More information on ERS’s farm share data can be found in the Price Spreads from Farm to Consumer data product, updated June 3, 2022.

Rising consumption of carrots over the past century influenced by fresh-cut technology

Friday, April 1, 2022

Fresh carrot per capita availability—a proxy used for per capita consumption—has trended upward over the past century, increasing from 2.2 pounds in 1919 to a projection of 8.8 pounds in 2022. Driven by rising fresh-market use, long-run consumer interest in carrots has been strong in the United States. In particular, during the past 35 years, the U.S. carrot industry was transformed by fresh-cut technology, which introduced baby and other fresh-cut carrot products. Per capita availability of fresh carrots peaked in 1997 at 14.1 pounds during the initial introductory period of fresh-cut products. Despite the widespread appeal and convenience of fresh-cut products, after the 1997 peak, availability of all fresh carrots trended downward. This drop may have reflected reduced demand for whole (heavier-weight) carrots, as lighter pre-packaged fresh-cut products shifted demand. It is also plausible the maturation of the fresh-cut industry fostered increased production and processing efficiency within the industry, reducing packinghouse waste and requiring fewer acres and raw carrot production. After 2009, the trend in fresh carrot availability reversed and slowly increased as the general economy recovered from the 2008 Great Recession and consumers had more disposable income. During the 5-year period of 2015–19, per capita availability of fresh carrots returned to the average of 8.9 pounds observed in 2000–04. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, November 2021.

Retail prices for collard greens fall during holiday seasons even as demand rises

Thursday, January 13, 2022

The market phenomenon known as “countercyclical pricing”—when retail prices decrease in times of increased consumer demand—has been documented by economists in the prices of goods such as tuna during Lent or canned soup during winter. Recent analysis by USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) provides another example of countercyclical pricing in fresh collard greens, a staple of Southern cuisine sometimes associated with good luck when eaten on the first day of the New Year. Popularity of the leafy green has risen since 2011, with annual availability increasing 43 percent from 0.88 pounds per capita to 1.26 pounds between 2011 and 2020. To observe consumer behavior, ERS researchers used retail scanner data consisting of billions of weekly U.S. retail food transactions captured from 2013 to 2018. They observed consistent annual surges in collard greens purchases during the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Day, accompanied by a smaller spike around Easter. They noted countercyclical pricing in all years of the available collard greens data, but the trend was most distinct in 2016. The volume of collard greens purchased that year exceeded the weekly average by 62 percent around Easter, 214 percent around Christmas, 274 percent around New Year’s Day, and 289 percent around Thanksgiving. However, collard greens prices fell below the weekly average by about 1 percent for Easter, 11 percent for Christmas, 20 percent for New Year’s, and 10 percent for Thanksgiving. This chart is drawn from ERS’ Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, November 2021.

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