With the Toronto Maple Leafs still on pause for the 4 Nations Face-Off, we’re blowing out the usual Monday Morning Leafs Report format to focus on one topic: The trade deadline, which is less than three weeks away, and why it’s time (again) for this team to make a big, bold splash.
The Leafs made four moves ahead of last year’s deadline.
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They sent third- (2025) and sixth-round (2024) picks away to reacquire Ilya Lyubushkin, the “Russian Bear.” They dealt another third (2024) and a fifth (2025) for another defenceman of a similar skill set in Joel Edmundson. And on deadline day, they parted with a fourth-round pick (2026) to acquire fourth-liner Connor Dewar.
A sixth-round pick (2026) also went to Carolina for Cade Webber, a bet that fell into the futures department.
Six picks in all were spent. Time will tell what becomes of Webber, but Lyubushkin, Edmundson and Dewar had only marginal impact in the postseason that followed. They weren’t the reason that team lost in the first round again, but they weren’t much help either, scoring zero goals combined all series.
GM Brad Treliving and his front office shouldn’t be so cautious and unimaginative in their approach again in the coming weeks.
Here’s why:
1. This roster has clear holes that need to be addressed
Centre ice is the big one.
The Leafs entered the season knowing they needed a more stout option behind Auston Matthews and John Tavares. It’s what spurred William Nylander’s oh-so-brief move to the middle. None of the players who’ve served in the middle of the third line have made any impact and, more crucially, would be woefully under-matched in the playoffs.
Opting not to address the position last spring when the need was clear, the Leafs entered their first-round series with Boston with Pontus Holmberg as their 3C. Holmberg played in all seven games and didn’t register a single point in a series that saw the Leafs struggle to score.
That struggle included Tavares, who didn’t punch in a five-on-five goal all series and posted just one such assist. His offensive woes were tied directly to the lack of deadline improvement at centre. Absent a third centre he could trust, then-Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe felt he had no choice but to play Tavares’ line (which included Mitch Marner) up against the Bruins’ top unit, which meant more burdensome defensive responsibility for the then-Leafs captain.
Add a centre capable of chowing down on those tough minutes before March 7 and Tavares (or Matthews) won’t be forced into such a substantial burden again.
And that’s what we mean by a splash: addition(s) with the ability to make substantial contributions.
David Pastrnak battles with Joel Edmundson in Game 7 of Toronto’s first-round playoff series with Boston last year. (Bob DeChiara / Imagn Images)
Depth scoring is an issue that clearly needs addressing and could be addressed, in part, with that centre. And the Leafs could still use another righty in their top four after acquiring only one, Chris Tanev, last summer.
Acquiring the kind of talent we’re talking about won’t be easy.
The list of centres, for instance, who might be available isn’t especially long and each candidate comes with his own set of complications. The marketplace will be competitive. And the Leafs don’t have a huge supply of tradeable assets.
But it’s the front office’s job to find solutions to difficult roster issues. It’s the will that may matter most here.
How willing are the Leafs to spend the best of their assets to acquire impactful help? A willingness to include Easton Cowan, Ben Danford, Fraser Minten and the team’s 2026 first-round pick, among other assets, in trade conversations opens up more possibilities.
Keep all of the best goodies off limits, on the other hand, and the Leafs will be limited to acquiring the same kind of marginal talent — third- and fourth-liners, third-pairing defencemen — as last spring.
Ryan O’Reilly’s availability is a matter of debate for various reasons. Put together a compelling trade package, one that perhaps includes a top prospect like Minten and maybe even a top pick too, and the Predators may have to think long and hard about asking the 34-year-old to accept a return to Toronto.
The Leafs might even want to think bigger and bolder than that. Do they consider, say, Colton Parayko, rather than a short-term option like Luke Schenn or David Savard to address their need on defence? (Parayko’s contract has five years left on it after this one, so maybe not). Is there a centre who fits the team’s needs in the short and long term and wasn’t thought to be available?
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Nobody saw Vegas pouncing on Tomas Hertl, at a reduced price, last spring. The Golden Knights have always had the spirit to do big things. The Leafs need more of that.
2. The East is wide open
If there was ever a time for the Leafs to be bold, it’s now.
There’s no juggernaut out east. Not like in previous years when Florida, Tampa, Boston, New York, Carolina and New Jersey looked definitively like the best teams not only in the conference, but the league.
The Washington Capitals are currently tops in points percentage and goal differential. They were swept in the first round last spring.
The path to the Stanley Cup Final isn’t as daunting as it’s been.
Make a serious addition or two (or three) and the Leafs might be able to nudge their way above the competition and make a real run at this thing.
If we’re judging by goal differential, the Leafs look like the least dominant of the apparent Eastern Conference contenders:
Rank | Team | Goal Differential |
---|---|---|
1 | Washington | 56 |
2 | Tampa | 44 |
3 | New Jersey | 33 |
4 | Carolina | 30 |
5 | Florida | 27 |
6 | Toronto | 13 |
7 | Ottawa | 2 |
8 | Detroit | -11 |
3. Contenders spend
It’s tempting to think the Leafs shouldn’t be sending out any more future goodies. They’ve moved so many already and ended up with nothing in terms of a championship or even a prolonged playoff run.
But here’s the thing: Trading futures is just the cost of doing business when you’re a contending team. Teams in position to win it all will always — or should always — do as much as they possibly can to maximize their rosters for that pursuit.
The Leafs aren’t unique in the way they’ve spent at the deadline. Pick any contender and you’ll find a similar pool of spent assets.
In 2020, the Lightning dealt a first-round pick and 2019 first-rounder (Nolan Foote) for Blake Coleman and then another first-round pick shortly thereafter for Barclay Goodrow. A year later, they spent a first to bring in Savard. And a year after that, even more stuff to acquire future Team Canada forward Brandon Hagel.
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Tampa went to three straight Finals and won two Cups.
The NHL’s boldest teams in recent memory — Tampa, Vegas, Colorado, Florida — have all been rewarded at some point.
The Leafs made a whole whack of moves in the past and weren’t rewarded with anything close to a Cup, so those moves were all a bust, right? Not exactly.
Take the haul of acquisitions in 2023.
O’Reilly was a pricey add, but he did exactly what was expected with nine points and a well-rounded performance in 11 games. Schenn was a snug fit next to Morgan Rielly. Jake McCabe struggled at times in his first postseason but also had two additional seasons on his contract (including this one) at $2 million on the cap. Noel Acciari scored the first goal of a Game 3 win against Tampa and got the Leafs, down 2-0, on the board again two nights later in another victory.
Down two games to none in the second round against Florida, the Leafs got an early goal and lead in Game 3 on a goal from Sam Lafferty.
Even Erik Gustafsson scored a goal in that postseason.
The deadline acquisitions did their part that spring. It was the team’s stars, in the end, who didn’t produce enough when it mattered.
Bring in the right kind of impactful support again and finally receive more starry performances from the likes of Matthews, Marner and Nylander, and the Leafs might finally be able to realize their championship goal or come a lot closer, anyway.
4. The time is now
Matthews is 27, with only three more years on his contract. Marner turns 28 in May and is unsigned beyond this season. Nylander is almost 29. John Tavares is 34 (and also unsigned beyond this season). Chris Tanev is 35. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is 33. McCabe is 31. Morgan Rielly will be 31 next month.
If not now, when?
And what exactly happens to this team, including the front office, if there’s no deep playoff run again later this spring? Does MLSE boss Keith Pelley, who permitted more of the status quo last spring (save for head coach), demand a more substantial swerve if the Leafs again fall short? Does team president Brendan Shanahan stick around?
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There’s also this, which probably doesn’t get brought up enough anymore: It’s been 58 years(!) since the Leafs won their last Stanley Cup or even reached the Final for that matter. This fan base deserves a front office doing all it possibly can to end that crazy drought.
The most interesting figure in all of this is Treliving. He’s never been a major in-season trader; Tyler Toffoli was his biggest add in Calgary. Treliving mostly tinkered around the edges ahead of the deadline with the Flames, preferring to do most of his work in the offseason.
He repeated that trend in Year 1 as Leafs GM.
The Leafs aren’t the Flames, though. They need something bolder. They need a splash.
— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and PuckPedia
(Top photo of Brad Treliving: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)